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The chances of Windows 12 launching this year continue to grow slimmer. At CES, Microsoft published a blog post saying that 2025 would be the “year of the Windows 11 refresh,” pretty much delivering a death blow to the idea. The company hasn’t officially commented on whether it’s even developing Windows 12, but I expect that it will come along at some point over the next few years.
Six years passed between the launch of Windows 10 and Windows 11 in October 2021. Prior to Windows 10, major releases arrived every three years, at least from Windows Vista on. But Windows 10, which was supposedly the “last version of Windows,” marked a shift. Which cadence will we see going forward? It’s a matter of speculation.
When Is Windows 12 Coming?
Since Microsoft moved to an annual feature update cadence for its desktop OS, the next logical time for Windows 12 to arrive will be around September or October 2025, tidily corresponding with the end of life for Windows 10. But given the aforementioned blog post, that now seems unlikely. If we drew a parallel with the Windows 10 lifespan, we’d get Windows 12 in 2027. Yeah, let’s go with that!
Despite not getting a new major version number, the 24H2 Update of Windows 11 is based on a platform codenamed Germanium, which powers the artificial intelligence features in the new Copilot+ PCs. In fact, who’s to say that Windows 12 won’t require a Copilot+ PC equipped with a neural processing unit?
In a September 2023 interview, Intel’s chief financial officer predicted a boost in PC sales due to the “Windows refresh” in 2024. Qualcomm, too, released statements pointing to Windows 12 in 2024. But, in retrospect, those must have been referring to the Copilot+ version of Windows 11 24H2.
One wildcard in all this talk of Windows 12 was the departure of longtime Windows boss Panos Panay, which resulted in a restructuring of the Windows version-numbering schedule. It seems that the new team wants to wait to put its stamp on a future release.
Another consideration is that Windows 11 only just passed 34% worldwide market share among Windows versions (according to Statcounter). Windows 10 is still ahead of it, with about 63%. Introducing another version would split up the pie further, especially considering the glacial pace at which many people upgrade.
Who’s the Top Source of Windows 12 Leaks?
Most of the details about potential future developments in Windows come from a single source: Windows Central’s Zac Bowden, who has deep reach inside the company and a decent track record when it comes to Windows predictions.
Highlights among his leaks about the next version of Windows include that the OS will have more AI built in and that it will switch to a lightweight modular code in what’s called Core PC. Bowden previously broke the news that the codename for the 2024 update was Hudson Valley.
Will We Get a Peek at the Windows 12 Desktop at Ignite?
Another peek at a potential Windows 12 came at Microsoft Ignite, a conference for the IT community. The company let slip a Windows desktop interface with an altered appearance, which many think represents Windows 12. Perhaps future Ignite events will reveal further details.
Potential Windows 12 desktop layout at Ignite 2023 (Credit: Microsoft/PCMag)
The (perhaps intentionally blurry) image features a floating search bar at the top, a floating taskbar, system icons in the top right corner, and a weather button in the top left corner.
Frankly, these design tweaks probably wouldn’t merit a whole new Windows version. They’re nowhere near as drastic as the interface update from Windows 10 to 11. And moving the system information—which is something Mac users are familiar with—seems an unnecessary disruption to ingrained Windows users’ habits. But maybe a drastic UI change like this is exactly what Microsoft thinks is necessary for a new version like Windows 12.
Is Windows as a Service Gone?
When Windows 10 launched, Microsoft stated that updates would arrive between the big updates in a steady stream, using the phrase “Windows as a service.” Microsoft’s Windows Lifecycle FAQ clearly states, “New versions of Windows 11 will be released once per year and will receive monthly quality updates that include security and non-security updates.” Windows 11 has followed this pattern, and Windows 12 will certainly not be a static, monolithic entity. It will change and gain new features on an ongoing basis. Keep in mind that Windows 10 in 2020 was a far different and far more capable OS than Windows 10 in 2015 because the company rolled out many feature updates in the interim. Windows 10 had updates with names like Creators Update, which changed the OS about as much as macOS changes from one colorfully named version to the next.
Despite references to Windows 10 as “the last version of Windows,” Microsoft has made it clear that its practice of releasing both major feature updates (as in 22H2 and 23H2) and interim updates (sometimes called Moments) continues with Windows 11. We have every reason to believe that strategy will continue with Windows 12.
Will Windows 12 Require a Subscription?
Eagle-eyed code watchers have noticed references to “subscription edition,” “subscription type,” and “subscription status” in the code for a Windows Insider build in the Canary channel (the earliest release channel). These references have led to speculation that Microsoft will require a subscription for the OS in the future—and perhaps PC prices will be lower as a result. Further speculation has it that a free, ad-supported version of Windows 12 might be available as well.
But that’s truly all just speculation. A stronger possibility is that these references to subscriptions are for business users, similar to the already available Windows 365 Cloud PC option. Even Bowden published an article debunking the subscription rumor.
A subscription requirement would surely outrage longtime Windows users. That’s what happened when Adobe Photoshop first moved to a subscription model. Users eventually paid up, however, boosting Adobe’s profits and enabling the company to develop impressive new features.
Windows 12 Will Have More Built-In AI
Windows 11’s 23H2 update last October brought powerful new AI tools in the form of Windows Copilot, and the 24H2 update added yet more, especially for Copilot+ PCs. Strangely, that second update removed any ability to control your PC in Windows 12. Perhaps we’ll get some of that functionality back. We’re likely to see user-facing predictive and assistive tools, too. AI technology can also improve back-end things like code stability, security, and update delivery.
Prior to Copilot, Windows’ Search panel and the default Edge web browser included the new and conversational search powered by AI. A Windows Insider blog post mentioned a Recommended section in File Explorer that suggests files and folders you’re likely to want to open. The feature is for users signed in to Active Directory accounts, but I could see it coming to anyone with a OneDrive login.
Recommended section in Windows File Explorer (Credit: Microsoft/PCMag)
Another way the new OS could use AI is to suggest user actions, even beyond the simple File Explorer suggestions. I’m hoping that Copilot gets a wake-word capability so that you can use it hands-free, as you could in the late, lamented Cortana. The type of AI that can anticipate a user’s intentions could be even more powerful in Windows 12, though it could incite a Clippy-like backlash. With desktop system components and Windows itself now including built-in support for AI functions like machine learning, it only makes sense to take advantage of it for the operating system. It’s just a matter of balancing intrusion with helpfulness.
We saw this with the backlash to the Copilot+ PCs‘ new Recall feature, which lets you search to find anything you’ve done on your computer previously. Although Microsoft stated that all the data remains on your local machine encrypted with BitLocker and that it doesn’t record sensitive information like passwords or private browsing, security experts raised enough resistance to delay Recall. Other testers have found the feature impressive and helpful.
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Windows 12 Will Take Advantage of More AI Hardware
The statements from Intel and Qualcomm executives above include mentions of the AI-specific processor components known as NPUs, or neural processing units. Indeed, much-beefier NPUs have arrived with Core Ultra “Lunar Lake” and Ryzen AI 300 CPUs. These are already available in PCs like the Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Carbon Gen 13 Aura Edition.
All the AI that I believe is coming to Windows 12 will benefit from NPUs for local AI processing such as machine learning. PCs that lack them might fall behind when Windows 12 rolls around and might not even enjoy official support. Even with the Copilot+ PCs, on-device AI functions are so far limited to things like image generation, the aforementioned Recall, and video call effects. I expect more AI functionality to use local processing in the future rather than Microsoft’s servers.
Finally, Decent Arm Processor Support?
Microsoft has been embarrassing itself for years with truly lackluster performance on non-Intel/AMD-powered PCs, especially when you consider the magnificent speed gains its major desktop competitor has attained with Apple silicon. New Germanium platform code seems to have finally flipped the script. Better Arm support is a focus for recent Windows updates, and the Copilot+ Arm-based PCs include a new Prism emulator to allow non-Arm-optimized applications to run with good performance. Qualcomm stated that the Snapdragon X Elite PC processor is 21% faster than Apple’s M3 chip. A fast chip is great, especially one with the strong AI processing power that Windows now needs for Copilot, but the OS code and apps need to be fast, too. Arm-based PCs could be the spark plug Microsoft needs to get more people on the latest version of Windows, whether that is Windows 11 or Windows 12.
Componentization and Core PC
Along with AI, the concept of a modular version of Windows has been floating around for at least five years. Sometimes referred to as Core OS, sometimes CorePC, a modular Windows would separate out OS components, making for smoother updates and better security. It would also allow Microsoft to tailor instances of Windows to specific platforms and use cases. Some of these instances might not need the ability to run all those huge legacy Windows applications, for example, saving system resources by omission.
The prime example of this core-based approach was Windows X, which never reached full release status. The idea behind it was to create a lightweight OS that could compete with ChromeOS. In the end, Microsoft used some of the Windows X interface concepts in Windows 11, such as the centered taskbar.
What’s the Best Way to See What’s Coming to Windows?
If you really want to see new features coming to Microsoft’s operating system, enroll a test PC in the Windows Insider program. The program has four channel options, from the highly experimental and unstable Canary channel through (in order of increasing stability and feature readiness) the Dev, Beta, and Release Preview channels.
Insider features have included interface tweaks, such as the redesigned volume indicator; new apps, such as the Media Player; and new capabilities for existing OS features, such as tabs for Task Manager. Currently in the Canary channel are a modernized Windows Hello experience, redesigned taskbar previews, and a simplified system tray area in the taskbar. As expected, these builds also include bug fixes and performance optimizations.
Windows Now and Later
For now, Microsoft is more focused on its Copilot generative AI features and Copilot+ PCs. That includes Arm-based PCs like those with a Snapdragon X Elite processor and Intel- and AMD-based devices with neural processing units (NPUs) to power the new AI features. Those are significant developments in Windows, which, for now, remains Windows 11. Windows 12 remains a hazy vision on the horizon, though the view could become clearer in the autumn of 2025 when Windows 10 finally sets off into the sunset.
To get caught up on the current release, read our Windows 11 coverage as well as our full review of Windows 11. You can also learn about our top tips for using Windows 11.
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About Michael Muchmore
Lead Software Analyst
