It’s time to stop being surprised that “A Minecraft Movie” was a mega hit. Projected at the high end to earn just $80 million at the domestic box office (the studio projected $55 million), which would’ve been a healthy number in its own right, the film doubled that in its first weekend of release. Warner Bros.’ update from Monday showed the blocky video game film has reached $163 million domestic and $313.7 million worldwide.
Around this very time two years ago, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” was the one that caught everyone off-guard. It too wildly over-performed expectations and had a $146 million opening, which “Minecraft” has already beaten. “Five Nights at Freddy’s” was already shocking pundits when it looked like it would reach $50 million domestic, considering that it was opening day-and-date on Peacock, and it opened to $80 million instead. The “Sonic” films keep performing better and better and have a fourth on the way, and those were never thought of as sure things, even if it now looks like one of the most bankable franchises around.
So if you’re still pointing more than 30 years back to 1993’s “Super Mario Bros.” live-action disaster as proof video game movies don’t translate to the big screen, cut it out. This is a genre and a source of IP that’s long been here to stay, and continuing to undersell them doesn’t do the future potential of these stories any favors.
“Hollywood has been looking for the next frontier in terms of genre they can mine, no pun intended,” Comscore Senior Analyst Paul Dergarabedian told IndieWire. “It’s a literal gold mine for studios to have finally figured out how to make small-screen video games and turn them, not just into blockbusters but global blockbusters, and it proves how crucial the theatrical component is.”
Dergarabedian says tracking doesn’t necessarily get the best read on the family audience, one that doesn’t go to the theater frequently and also doesn’t need a long build-up to generate excitement for a movie, so that has something to do with why “Minecraft” came as such a surprise. There’s also a dearth of kids titles theatrically until Memorial Day; the game is enormously popular and has been around since 2011; fans dressed as Jack Black’s “Steve” character started invading social media and building more buzz; and Warner Bros. also did tons of brand tie-ins with the likes of McDonald’s, Oreos, and Doritos.
But like “Super Mario” before it, you only get to this enormous level when you’re a 4-quadrant movie, something that doesn’t only appeal to kids. PostTrak data shows that the film’s largest demographic was 18-24 year-olds, who accounted for 45 percent of the film’s turnout, while teens between 13-17 were 35 percent. That crowd and more turned out to the theater in costume and cheered in viral moments when the film revealed a “chicken jockey,” sparking some of the surprise social media frenzy that powered the film’s growth over the weekend.
Jeff Goldstein, Warner Bros.’ global distribution chief, was thrilled that the younger audience especially gave “Minecraft” an A CinemaScore. But he was also happy that the film had strength in large, medium, and small cities alike as well as the suburbs, and how spread out ethnically the film’s demographic breakdown was.
With Spring Break still ahead, he expects the film to have a long runway. “We got everybody, there’s no question about it,” he told IndieWire.
Dergarabedian said that part of what the producers understood about “Minecraft” is that, if the game itself is a PG, 4-quadrant experience, the movie should be too, and not something that only speaks to hardcore gamers. That’s the sweet spot that “Minecraft,” “Super Mario,” and “Sonic” have all captured, while something like the PG-13 “Borderlands,” another adaptation of a wildly popular game franchise, bombed hard. Around the time of “Super Mario,” we specifically suggested “Minecraft” would have a hard time replicating that same crossover success. We’re happy to be proved wrong.
“You can’t put it on auto pilot,” Dergarabedian added. “You have to play that game with a keen eye toward every aspect of it and perfectly strategize.”
Because its audience has been so diverse and international, Dergarabedian is sure that “Minecraft” will hold long term. It will easily become the highest-grossing domestic title of the year so far, surpassing “Captain America: Brave New World,” and it has a good chance of reaching $1 billion globally, something that would’ve been a tough bar to cross for any movie not named “Avatar” in 2025.
It also puts 2024’s box office within shouting distance of last year, cutting down the gap to roughly 5 percent below last year’s overall total year-to-date compared with over 11 percent a week ago. “We’ve seen this so many times, one movie can change the trajectory of all movies,” Goldstein said.
Even if the press is surprised movies like “Minecraft” can overperform, Hollywood isn’t. Universal has a second “Super Mario” movie in the works, and Sony has Nintendo’s live-action “The Legend of Zelda” movie coming soon. Universal and Blumhouse also decided to give a “Freddy’s” sequel a full theatrical ride after kicking the first one to streaming. Amazon MGM Studios could be trying to replicate this formula with its movie based on “The Sims” as produced by Margot Robbie. We have to imagine Warner Bros. and Legendary are already thinking sequel with “Minecraft.”
If all that wasn’t enough, here’s your suggestion to put a “Fortnite” movie in development, right this second.
