Demand for Nintendo’s new next-generation console is expected to surge at launch, and market analysts are predicting constricted supply in the weeks and months after launch. If Switch 2 gets a 1H launch, will supply stabilize in time for the critical Holiday 2025 season?
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Following a multitude of leaks and an incredible 146 million global sales milestone, all eyes are on Nintendo to reveal the Switch’s successor. The new hardware is expected to be a higher-end iteration of the current model capable of AI-boosted 4K gaming while retaining the original’s handheld-console design. Some sort of new novelty or gimmick is expected, as is typical of Nintendo’s systems.
Unfortunately, another typical trend is expected to repeat itself with the Switch 2: Massive demand. Two analysts believe that the Switch 2 will be pretty hard to find at launch, and if you don’t manage to get one before or at release, you could be waiting months before new stock becomes available.
In a recent interview with Games Industry.biz, Japanese games industry analyst Dr. Serkan Toto said Nintendo will simply run out of stock to sell to consumers:
“Nintendo will not have enough consoles to sell – Despite Nintendo’s pledge and best efforts, the new device will sell out very quickly and not be available for months in 2025. It will be even worse than 2017 when the Switch launched. Furthermore, the name will be Switch 2. I also expect deep price cuts for the original Switch in 2025.”
Circana analyst Mat Piscatella also believes that the Switch 2 will be hard to find the US market.
“I’m expecting to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge. And units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities and will,” Piscatella said on Bluesky.
The market has significantly changed since the original Switch launched in 2017, and there’s a lot more competition when it comes to handheld hardware. But Nintendo has one thing that others don’t: first-party exclusive content that can only be found in one place.
The Switch 2 is believed to launch sometime in the first half of 2025, potentially even during a March-April timeline similar to the original Switch.
Market trends dictate that Nintendo should aim to achieve free console supply throughout the year in order to ensure there’s enough Switch 2 systems for Holiday 2025. This period, the Q3 quarter, is when Nintendo and everyone else in gaming makes the most money.
